Palestinian Army or Police force?
- J.P. Katz
- Mar 25
- 5 min read
Updated: Mar 26
Is the Palestinian Authority building and training a military combat force for the next Oct. 7 style attack?
Listen to a long form discussion on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7EgqDnuoplSXTInEtUzKCP?si=pUhdAnAgRciHF0Un0AtJwA
Download the full report by Regavim.org
The Conceptual Collapse: A Summary of “The Writing on the Wall (of Jericho)”
In a comprehensive report published in March 2026, the Regavim Movement outlines a stark warning regarding the evolution and current state of the Palestinian Authority Security Forces (PASF). Titled The Writing on the Wall (of Jericho): Conceptual Collapse: The Palestinian Authority Security Apparatus as a Partner for Peace, the report meticulously details how a force originally designed for civilian policing has transformed into a highly trained, heavily armed, semi-regular military organization. According to the authors, the Israeli defense establishment has fallen victim to a dangerous “conceptual paradigm” that blindly views the PASF as a partner in security coordination, ignoring its deep ties to institutional terrorism and its preparation for wide-scale armed conflict.
The Origins of the PASF: The Oslo Promise The foundation of the Palestinian Authority Security Forces was laid during the 1990s peace process. The Oslo Accords and the subsequent 1994 Cairo Agreement granted the Palestinian Authority (PA) internal governance and policing powers in parts of Judea, Samaria, and the Gaza Strip. Initially, the PASF was capped at 9,000 personnel and restricted to light arms, including 7,000 firearms, 120 machine guns, and up to 45 light armored vehicles. The Israeli leadership at the time, including then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, championed the PASF on the premise that a Palestinian force could combat terrorism more effectively than Israel, famously claiming they would operate “without the High Court of Justice and without B’Tselem”.
Over the years, the structure of the PASF expanded into nine primary organizations, including General Intelligence, Preventive Security, National Security Forces, and the Presidential Guard. Simultaneously, the authorized size of the force ballooned. Following the Oslo II Agreement and the Wye River Agreement, the official cap was eventually revised to 30,000 personnel. However, the report argues that the PA consistently violated these agreements, systematically exceeding both personnel and ammunition limits from the very beginning.
Early Warnings and Covert Terror The report asserts that the framework's fundamental flaw was the assumption that the PA sought genuine stability. Instead, PA Chairman Yasser Arafat allegedly viewed the Oslo Accords as a temporary, deceptive truce—akin to the Islamic concept of the “Hudaybiyyah Agreement”—designed to build military strength for a future takeover of the entire territory. This dual strategy was evident in Arafat's "revolving door" policy, wherein terrorists were publicly arrested to ease international pressure, only to be quietly released once media attention faded.
The first major rupture in the illusion of security coordination occurred during the 1996 Western Wall Tunnel riots. Fueled by false claims regarding Islamic holy sites, the PASF actively participated in the violence with Arafat’s encouragement. For five days, the very weapons Israel had permitted the PASF to possess were turned against IDF soldiers, resulting in the deaths of 17 Israeli troops. This event exposed the PASF as a dual-purpose entity that would operate as partners when convenient, but as armed adversaries when directed by PA leadership.
The Second Intifada and Operation Defensive Shield The facade of cooperation completely disintegrated with the outbreak of the Second Intifada in September 2000. Under Arafat’s directives, the PASF ceased restraining violence and instead spearheaded the armed struggle, even establishing the "Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades" using official PASF officers and salaried personnel. PASF members exploited their professional training and security coordination with Israel to plan deadly incursions, operating hand-in-hand with terrorist cells.
The report highlights several harrowing examples of PASF complicity, most notably the 2000 Ramallah lynching, where Palestinian police officers actively collaborated with an enraged mob to murder and mutilate two IDF reservists inside a police station. Furthermore, the institutional nature of this terrorism was exposed in 2002 with the interception of the Karine A weapons ship. Financed and managed by Fuad Shubaki, a brigadier general in the PASF, the ship carried 50 tons of strategic weaponry from Iran, including advanced anti-tank missiles and military-grade explosives.
In response to the unprecedented terror wave that claimed over 1,100 Israeli lives, the IDF launched Operation Defensive Shield in March 2002. During this massive military campaign, the IDF systematically destroyed PASF headquarters and uncovered original PA documents, signed by Arafat, proving that European aid funds had been funneled to finance attacks and pay wanted terrorists.
The Rebirth of the Paradigm: The Dayton Model Following the destruction of the PASF's infrastructure, a new attempt to rebuild the forces was initiated in 2007. After Hamas forcefully seized control of the Gaza Strip, the PA leadership in Ramallah required assistance to survive, aligning their interests with Israel and the West. This led to the creation of the "Dayton Model," spearheaded by U.S. General Keith Dayton, which aimed to forge a new, apolitical, and highly professional Palestinian police force under strict American and Jordanian supervision.
However, Regavim argues that this renewed model has proven to be just another dangerous facade. While the PASF outwardly projects Western-backed discipline, its underlying ideology and operations remain deeply rooted in terrorism. The report reveals that between 2020 and 2025 alone, at least 118 PASF officers were directly involved in terror attacks against Israelis. Rather than condemning these officers, the PA glorifies them as "martyrs," honors them with military funerals, and pays substantial salaries to their families.
Militarization: From Police Force to Semi-Regular Army Today, the PASF operates far beyond the scope of a civilian police force. Regavim estimates that the PA currently pays salaries to approximately 65,000 personnel—more than double the 30,000 cap established in the 1990s. This creates a staggering ratio of 19 armed PA personnel per 1,000 residents, compared to roughly 3 police officers per 1,000 residents in Israel.
The qualitative upgrade of the PASF is equally alarming. The forces have abandoned the light-arms restrictions of the Oslo Accords and now routinely train with RPG-7 anti-tank launchers, 7.62mm PKM heavy machine guns, explosive breaching charges, and armored vehicles. Furthermore, the PASF has established elite commando units:
Unit 101: Specializes in urban warfare and tactical parachuting.
S.A.T (Special Armed Team): Focuses on rapid incursions using high-speed motorcycles and in-motion shooting.
BTS ("The Bat"): Trained for low-signature, nighttime operations using advanced night-vision technology.
These forces undergo extensive military training not only in local facilities like the Jericho academy but also in countries such as Russia, Pakistan, and Algeria, where officers study conventional warfare, artillery, tactical diving, and mechanized infantry maneuvers.
Ideological Radicalization and the Next October 7 The physical militarization of the PASF is coupled with intense ideological radicalization. Military academies routinely host events vilifying the State of Israel, such as conferences mourning the "Cursed Balfour Declaration". Official PASF social media channels regularly publish videos featuring the voice of Yasser Arafat mixed with Hamas founder Ahmad Yassin, promoting the religious duty to "return" to and conquer Israeli cities like Haifa, Acre, Jaffa, and Be'er Sheva. Additionally, the PA systematically launders convicted terrorists by granting them official officer ranks and PASF salaries upon their release from Israeli prisons.
Conclusion Regavim's report concludes with a chilling comparison to the failure of intelligence and security concepts prior to October 7, 2023. The authors warn that Israel is repeating the exact same mistakes in Judea and Samaria by turning a blind eye to the massive stockpiling of weapons and military training occurring right across the fence. So long as the Israeli defense establishment continues to treat the PASF as a security partner rather than a hostile terror army, the report warns that Israel is actively paving the way for a catastrophic "blowback scenario"—one that could result in murderous, close-range massacres in the very heart of the country.
Listen to a long form discussion on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7EgqDnuoplSXTInEtUzKCP?si=pUhdAnAgRciHF0Un0AtJwA
Download the full report by Regavim.org
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