Did Hamas Already Win the War?
Israel employed tens of thousands of Gazans to help alleviate their economic crisis caused by decades of terror attacks against Israel. Were Israel's gestures for peace senseless? Why didn't it work?
In this episode of TRIBE Journal we take a look at the dangerously gross misunderstanding that Israel had for the real methods of war that Hamas was fighting. Col. Grisha Yakubovich shares his perspective after having served the Gazan people prior to Oslo as acting Mayor and later becoming the Director of Civil Department at Coordination of Government Activities in the Terrirories (aka COGAT) from 2012 - 2016. Col. Yakubovich paints a frightening look at the war that Israel could have avoided decades ago but now may have already lost.
We visit with Col. Yakubovich on the TRIBECAST.
WATCH THE FULL INTERVIEW WITH COL. GRISHA YAKUBOVICH
PART 1 of 2
Gaza's Permits for Peace: Unraveling the Complex Dynamics
In the aftermath of the bloody conflict in May 2021 between Israel and Hamas, a glimmer of hope emerged as a ceasefire took effect. The new Bennett-Lapid coalition government in Israel aimed to foster peace by granting 20,000 work permits daily for Gazans to enter Israel, providing economic relief and an opportunity for a better life.
For the first time since Hamas seized power in 2007, many Gazans, including individuals like Muhammad, were granted permits to work in Israel. Some analysts estimated that these permits injected approximately $2 million daily into Gaza's economy. The move was a significant step, with the potential to bridge divides and stimulate economic growth in the region.
However, as explored in a recent TRIBE Journal episode, the peace initiative faced unexpected challenges. Despite the economic benefits and the potential for improved relations, Hamas launched a surprise attack, shattering the optimism surrounding the newfound cooperation.
The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Yair Lapid, expanded the number of permits to 15,000 and expressed intentions to increase it further to 20,000. The decision aimed to offer Gazans access to well-paying jobs and, in turn, pressure Hamas to reconsider its fundamental opposition to Israel.
Critics, including Colonel Grisha Yakubovich, a former acting mayor of Gaza in 1994, questioned the effectiveness of such concessions. Colonel Yakubovich, who served as a liaison between Israel and the Palestinians as Director of Civil Authority at COGAT, argued that offering permits without clear conditions only strengthened Hamas and compared the group to ISIS:
"The moment you reach a ceasefire with them, [you're giving them] legitimacy. And the moment you negotiate with mediators, it's also legitimacy. And after each round of escalation, when you give something it means you're squeezable. They kidnapped Gilad Shalit and [Israel] released prisoners, they initiated another round of escalation and [Israel] gave them more... We gave them more water, more trucks etc. etc. After May 2021, this huge amount of escalation, we authorize workers to work in Israel? I never imagined that reward. That was the biggest reward ever. If you give, it's only for something big like no tunnels, no rockets, no nothing. Only then [should] you give to them."
The employment initiative faced additional skepticism. A study from Tel Aviv University suggested that to have a significant impact on unemployment in Gaza, Israel would need to issue a much larger number of work permits, posing challenges for both economies.
Hamas spokesperson Hazzim Qassem dismissed the partial opening of the Beit Hanoun crossing as "collective punishment" and continued to portray gestures from Israel as oppressive measures.
In the complex landscape of Gaza-Israel relations, goodwill gestures aimed at peace often become entangled in narratives that fuel conflict. Colonel Yakubovich pointed to historical examples, emphasizing how perceptions of victories, regardless of the aftermath, shape the narrative. He pointed out that after the Yom Kippur War in 1973, Egypt created a national holiday to commemorate Oct. 6, 1973 because they surprised Israel and held the front line for several days. Col. Yakubovich (res.) explains:
"October 7 will be on the Palestinian calendar for generations, it succeeded to conquer the succeeded to kill to butcher to rape. They actually conquered kibbutzim in Israel for eight in ten hours. Hamas, small, tiny Hamas. It's a defeat in the eyes of the beholder. It doesn't matter what will happen after. You know, in Palestinian history legacy there's the picture of Yasser Arafat and there's supposed to be another picture of Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas). They will throw this to the garbage of history and the second picture will be Yahya Sinwar."
The story unfolds as a delicate balance between economic relief, security concerns, and the intricate dynamics of regional politics. As Gazans seek opportunities across the border, and Israel attempts to secure peace, the path to lasting stability remains elusive.
In the eyes of many, the question lingers: Can economic incentives truly pave the way for peace in a region burdened by a long history of conflict and political complexities? The TRIBE Journal long form interview with Colonel Yakubovich provides further insights into the challenges and opportunities on this challenging journey towards lasting peace.
Watch the deep dive with Col. Yakubovich now:
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TRANSCRIPT OF EPISODE:
Al Jazeera 0:00
Many people in Gaza like Muhammad have been granted permits to work in Israel.
Katz 0:06 After a bloody May of 2021, when Hamas launched 5,000 rockets that Israelis and Israel aggressively retaliated with airstrikes, a short lived ceasefire went into effect. There were new hopes for peace with a new Bennett-Lapid coalition government in Israel and a new goal of 20,000 work permits for Gazans to cross the border each day into Israel to feed their families and stimulate the Gazan economy.
Reuters 0:28 The permits which analysts say bring around $2 million a day into Gaza's economy, Al Jazeera 0:33 the first time people from Gaza were allowed to work in Israel since Hamas took power in 2007.
Katz 0:41 But how was this gesture for peace received by the gods and people in their government, and why didn't didn't work?
NBC 0:46 Israelis woke up today to find their worst nightmares had come true in the form of a massive surprise attack by Hamas.
Katz 0:54 in this episode of TRIBE Journal, we'll take a closer look at the price to pay for peace.
Reuters 1:05 Palestinian demand for Hebrew classes at the Nafha Language Center in Gaza has increased fourfold
Gazan Worker 1:12 I made a maximum of $15 a day while in Israel, I made a minimum of $150 I came to learn Hebrew, so it will be easier for me to work in Israel. I'm very happy to get a permit. My life is totally different now.
Katz 1:30 When Israel unilaterally removed all Jews from the Gaza Strip in 2005, everyone was looking forward to a quiet border. But Gaza continued to launch rockets and terror attacks at Israel, forcing Israel to close the border to Gaza and workers to protect Israeli citizens. The border which Gaza has enjoyed 500,000 crossings into Israel in the month prior to the disengagement from Gaza showed little to no activity for the 15 years that followed until Israel changed his policy just four years ago.
i24 News 2:01 5,000 Palestinians hold these permits. And now Israel announced 2,000 More permits will be released Israel adding new permits as a result of the understanding reached between it and Hamas.
Today Show 2:14 Hamas is still launching rockets at Israeli cities, and the group is no longer making good on promises.
i24 News 2:24 Israeli leaders use this low in violence from Gaza achieved also thanks to Egyptian pressure to expand economic relief in the strip.
Reuters 2:34 The Hamas run labor ministry in Gaza says it has received 100,000 applications for permits since March Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said the number of permits might soon go up from the current 15,000 to 20,000.
Katz 2:48 The concept was simple. If Hamas had something to lose, they'd be deterred from attacking Israel. Reuters 2:53 Israeli officials say the permits have forced guises rulers in Hamas to face a choice between maintaining their fundamental opposition to Israel and allowing Palestinians access to well paying jobs.
Katz 3:05 But not everyone agreed with this logic. Colonel Grisha Jakubowicz served as acting mayor of Gaza in 1994, and was the director of the Civil Department at the branch of the IDF which was responsible for Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories, aka COGAT until 2016. He was personally involved as a liaison between Israel and the Palestinians. And since his retirement in 2016. He entered the corporate side of things and serves as a consultant to corporations throughout the region
Col. Grisha Yakubovich 3:36 The moment you reach a ceasefire with them, its legitimacy. And the moment you negotiate with mediators, it's also legitimacy. And after each round of escalation, when you give something it means you're squeezable, so they can actually release prisoners, round of escalation, you gave them more we give them more water, more trucks to capture long, etcetera, etcetera. After May 2021, this huge amount of escalation, we authorize to workers to work in Israel. I never imagined that was the reward,
Katz 4:07 You wouldn't have done that.
Col. Grisha Yakubovich 4:10 Never ever. That was the let's say the biggest reward ever. If you give, it's only for you know, something big deal, like no tunnels, no rockets, no, nothing. Only then you give them
Katz 4:20 What did they give it for?
Col. Grisha Yakubovich 4:22 Well, I don't know. I don't know. I haven't been there. But it was a mistake. And I've said it. It's a mistake. I understood that Hamas is ISIS.
Katz 4:29 While Israel defended against rockets and terror, the government simultaneously tried to buy peace with Gazans by issuing job permits. Did these concessions reduce support for Hamas or only help them? In December 2021 a team from Tel Aviv University analyzed data to determine how employment rates in Gaza impacts support for Hamas. The article concludes that quote, "The effective employment of 10,000 Gazans in Israel on unemployment in the Gaza Strip is likely to be limited due to the considerable size of the Palestinian locally Perforce. In addition, its effect on support for Hamas is unclear." The article went on to point out that to achieve a significant reduction to unemployment of 10%, Israel would need to issue approximately 40 to 50,000. Work Permits, even if theoretically, Gazans could reach border equilibrium with Israel 150,000 Gaza workers would negatively impact unskilled labor markets in Israel, and in particular, it would negatively impact the Arab Israeli citizen workforce. In other words, the Israeli employment market for unskilled labor is simply not large enough to make a significant reduction to unemployment in Gaza. But even if Israel could solve all of causes problems Hamas continuously spins any gesture from Israel to the Gaza and people as the victory.
Hazzim Qassem (spokserperson for Hamas) 5:45 The occupation's announcement of the partial opening of the Beit Hanoun (Erez) crossing after closing it for many days confirms the occupation policy of collective punishment against our Palestinian people. Our people in the Gaza Strip have the right to enter and leave the Gaza Strip with complete freedom. in compliance with all international law. Most of the crossings, have a significant impact on the difficult humanitarian and economic conditions in the Gaza Strip.
Katz 6:13 It's this fabrication of narratives that turn goodwill gestures for peace into weapons of war.
Col. Grisha Yakubovich 6:19 Let me give you an example. Let's go to '73 Yom Kippur War, and who won Israel or Egypt?
Dan Rathers NBC News 1973 6:24 The Egyptians apparently have taken control of at least a portion of the east bank of the Suez and ......says it will take several days to dive them out of there attributing the initial Egyptian successes to the thin line of Israeli defenses in that area. Egypt maintains it has taken control of the entire beach.
Col. Grisha Yakubovich 6:41 They surprised us there is a museum of the '73 Yom Kippur war. Yes, eventually we eliminated them. But on their calendar, there is the celebration the day of October 6, and who won? Egypt. So what does it really matter what we think? What does it matter what really happened after? October 7 will be on the Palestinian calendar for generations, it succeeded to conquer the succeeded to kill to butcher to rape. They actually conquered kibbutzim, in Israel for eight in ten hours. Hamas, small, tiny Hamas. It's a defeat in the eyes of the beholder. It doesn't matter what will happened after. You know, in Palestinian history legacy there's the picture of Yasser Arafat and there's supposed to be another picture of Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas). They will throw this to the garbage of history and the second picture will be Yahya Sinwar.
Yahya Sinwar 7:48 People in the West Bank, the battle in the next stage is your battle. The West Bank is the main battle area,
Col. Grisha Yakubovich 7:54 The hero, the Mukawama, the resistance, and we need to make sure that we do whatever we can do to eliminate this defeat.
Katz 8:08 At www.tribejournal.org we strive to tell the untold you can find incredible stories like this one and the full two hour deep dive with Col. Yakubovich on www.tribejounal.org.